No matter where we go or what we do, friends and neighbors are always hitting us up with the “How’s the Market” question.
Since the new year is right around the corner, you also might be wondering if 2024 will be the right time to buy or sell a home. At Team Trimble Real Estate Collective, we want folks to make the most informed decision possible, so we’re diving into some national data and sharing some local info too in this article. Here’s what the experts have to say about what’s ahead:
Experts Forecast Ongoing Home Price Appreciation
Take a look at the latest home price forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
As you can see in the orange bars on the left, on average, experts forecast prices will end this year up about 2.8% overall, and increase by another 1.5% by the end of 2024.
That’s big news, considering so many people thought prices would crash this year. The truth is, prices didn’t come tumbling way down in 2023, and that’s because there just weren’t enough homes for sale compared to the number of people who wanted or needed to buy them, and that inventory crunch is still very real. This is the general rule of supply and demand, and it continues to put upward pressure on prices as we move into the new year.
Looking forward, experts project home prices will continue to rise next year, but not quite as much as they did this year. Even though the expected rise in 2024 isn’t as big as in 2023, it’s important to understand that home price appreciation is cumulative. In simpler terms, this means if the experts are right, according to the national average, after your home’s value goes up by 2.8% this year, it should go up by another 1.5% next year. That ongoing price growth is a big part of why owning a home can be a smart decision in the long run. (And why waiting for rates to come down is a flawed strategic approach).
Projections Show Sales Should Increase Slightly Next Year
While 2023 hasn’t seen a lot of home sales relative to more normal years in the housing market (we see you, people who don’t want to trade in their 2% rate for one triple that). Experts are forecasting a bit more activity next year. Here’s what those same three organizations project for the rest of this year, and in 2024 (see graph below):
While expectations are for just a slight uptick in total sales, improved activity next year is a good thing for the housing market, and for buyers and sellers like you. As people continue to move, that opens up options for hopeful buyers who are looking for a home.
So, what do these forecasts show? The housing market is expected to be more active in 2024. That may be in part because there will always be people who need to move. People will get new jobs, have children, get married or divorced – these and other major life changes lead people to move regardless of housing market conditions. That will remain true next year, and for years to come. And if mortgage rates come down, we’ll see even more activity in the housing market.
Waukesha County Insights
Here’s a snapshot of the latest stats from Waukesha County. As you can see, the median sales price is up 6.1% year to date, while the days on market have stretched a little. It’s important to re-set expectations from the last year that while your home may not go under contract in a day, the evidence is clear that prices have continued to rise and original price to list price ratio is still over 100%.
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking about buying or selling, it’s important to know what the experts are forecasting for the future of the housing market. When you’re in the know about what’s ahead, you can make the most informed decision possible. As your local real estate experts, we’d love to chat about the local market and forecasts for your specific town, city or neighborhood, and craft a plan for your next move. Reach out today!
